With the latest update for HDB Resales data released by www.data.gov.sg released in late May, I would like to share with you some of the key insights/trends observed from analysing data.
Below analysis is based on HDB Resales transaction data for the period (January 2017 to March 2020)
1) HDB Resales Overview
What better way to showcase a good overview of the HDB Resales data other than using a treemap. In this tree map, you could see at a glance what is the average transacted HDB resales price for various different flat types in the different towns.
From the size of the box, you could also tell the volume of transactions each of the various towns has. The bigger the box is, the higher the volume of the transactions is. If you hover around each of the box, you could obtain the exact number of transactions.
The colour of the box also determine how expensive the various district is. The more orange the box is, the less expensive the town is. Similarly, the more blue the box is, the more expensive the town is.
The colour changes from orange to blue when it crosses the average transacted price (across all flat types) for all towns- which is $438,508.
2) HDB Resales Town Ranking (based on $psf)
Ever wonder how is the ranking for the various towns based on $psf transacted for HDB resales like?
Here it goes.
The most expensive town (based on $psf) is Central Area while the least expensive town (based on $psf) is Choa Chu Kang.
More detailed information (such as 25th percentile, 75th percentile pricing) for the various towns will be made available to patrons. (https://www.patreon.com/datascienceinvestor)
3) Growth of HDB Resales Pricing
Have you ever heard people telling you that it's hard to made a profit out of HDB Resales and you should be looking at BTO or private properties if you hope to made any profit?
Well, turn out they are not wrong.
Above is a scatter plot created ($psm- price per square metre against month) for all HDB resale transactions for the period (January 2017 to March 2020). Turns out the trend line is negative. In fact, the r coefficient (or loosely put, growth coefficient) is -0.03. This shows that the HDB Resales pricing is stagnant for the past 3 years. If you have been reading my analysis on private condominium, you will realise that most of the private condominiums in various districts are usually on a uptrend in terms of $psf growth. Hence, if your objective is to earn a profit from your property, HDB resales should be your last option.
How about the performance across different flat types? Do 4 room flat perform better than 3 room flat in general?
Here is the scatter plots for the various different flat types.
1-room flat performs the worst with a strong negative trend as you can see above. Best performing flat type is multi-generation flat with the most positive r coefficient of 0.17.
4-room and 5-room flats have identical performance with a r coefficient of -0.01 (which goes to show that they are stagnant in terms of price growth). This stagnant performance is still better than the 3-room, 2-room and 1-room which all shows more negative r coefficients of -0.09, -0.18 and -0.76 respectively.
Now, the next question you might have is how do the individual towns perform in terms of $psm growth?
The growth coefficients for various towns are obtained in the same manner as what I did for the above scatter plots. There is a rather disturbing trend here with 18 out of 26 districts on a negative growth trend. The town which performs the best in terms of $psm growth is Pasir Ris. Surprisingly, this is not too different from my private condominium analysis which shows that D17 (Changi, Loyang and Pasir Ris) is the best performing district in terms of $psf growth in the recent years. Now, seems like the extreme East is performing really well! Hooray to the Easties!
Hope the HDB Resales analysis brought you great insights. Do share it around with other people around you who are interested in HDB Resales. Also, do check out the Singapore HDB Resales Interactive Map if you haven't!
If you are also interested in private condominium, please refer to my other articles
Similar to what I have done for the private condominium, future privileged content on HDB Resales (eg. data-inferred price of a certain property, more in-depth analysis of a certain property, updated Singapore HDB Resales Interactive Map) will be made available to patrons (https://www.patreon.com/datascienceinvestor).
Look forward to your support!
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