2025 Portfolio Update: A 15.6% Return For The Full Year. CAGR of 13.2% Since 2021.

When I wrote my 2024 review last year, the CAGR was 12.7% across a 4-year period.

The CAGR now stands at 13.2% across a 5-year period after a 15.6% return in 2025.

I don’t think this result is too shabby but I was honestly expecting a better result at the end of Q3 2025.

When Q3 was concluded, my YTD return was 21.3% and I was expecting that I could end 2025 with a >20% return.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin has a different idea and dragged my portfolio down in Q4. The monthly returns for Bitcoin in Q4 are all negative and so is my portfolio.

2025 is the only year in Bitcoin history whereby the asset hits an ATH yet eventually ending negative in returns.

Because of the less than optimal results in Q4, my portfolio has now unfortunately lag the market returns on a 5-year period despite being ahead for 3 quarters of 2025.

For the new readers who might not know the composition of my portfolio, here is the breakdown.

(Source: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com)

iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH): 35%

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): 24%

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI): 5%

Alibaba Group (BABA): 2%

Shell (SHEL): 7%

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK): 5%

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG): 2%

Bitcoin: 20%

In 2025, I increased the holdings in URTH and BRK.B from 30% to 35% and 20% to 24% respectively. Similarly, I reduce my holdings in MCHI, BABA, ARKK, and ARKG to make up for the difference. Holdings in Bitcoin and Shell remain the same.

The reason behind such changes was to introduce more stability into the portfolio by gradually increasing my portfolio weightage in the more stable constituents like URTH and BRK.B

Here is a comparison of the 2025 performance of the portfolio against the index.

Based on an arbitrary amount of $10,000

(Source: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com)

For the full performance against the index since 2021, below is the chart.

Here is the yearly breakdown of the annual returns.

2025: 15.6%

2024: 35.5%

2023: 44.8%

2022: -26.9%

2021: 0.2%

After 2 phenomenal years in 2023 and 2024, it’s not realistic to expect that my portfolio could have an annual return of more than 30% in 2025 again. If I could replicate this consistently, I am sure I will be much nearer to my FIRE goal than expected.

To be honest, a 15.6% return is certainly a good result and it further increases my CAGR since 2021.

I shouldn’t be expecting that my portfolio will consistently provide such a high rate of return. I have to admit that the past 3 years of good return have a lot to do with the beta (general market performance).

While seeking alpha (market outperformance) is important, I believe beta has a stronger impact on your investment returns and generally how well you are on track to your FIRE goal over a longer time horizon.

Underperforming the market by 5% in a bull market with >20% positive returns wins beating the market by 5% in a bear market with <20% negative returns anytime.

As I aim to reduce volatility in my portfolio, it is also expected that huge gains like 2023 and 2024 are unlikely to happen. I will be happy if my annual return is the same as what I have achieved in 2025 but chances are the long term CAGR should be lower than 15%.

In fact, I am aiming for a 12% CAGR over the next decade to bring me closer towards my FIRE goal. Fingers crossed on that.

Similarly to 2024, I will make some changes to my portfolio as part of my annual rebalancing.

Here are the changes.

1) Removing ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) from my portfolio

I have to admit buying ARKK has been a mistake and I just no longer see it as an ETF I like to hold in my portfolio.

2) Further increasing my holdings in URTH and BRK.B from 35% to 36% and 24% to 28% respectively

I know many have been bashing the performance of BRK.B of late as their “lack” of AI investments seems to be dragging their performance in this AI-fueled rally. Furthermore, some question if Berkshire Hathaway can still perform as well with Warren Buffett stepping down. My conviction in Berkshire Hathaway remains and their recent moves in the market with their huge cash pile convinced me that they will outperform the rest should a downturn in the economy happen. Just for context purposes, their cash pile of $400 billion is more than 3 times the market cap of the largest company in Singapore- DBS.

I will not touch the rest of my portfolio. I am still keeping Bitcoin at 20% of my portfolio but will also look at gradually reducing it in the next couple of years as I follow the glide-path towards having a sustainable portfolio to bring me closer to my FIRE goal.

Here’s wishing everyone a happy 2026 and may the market enjoy yet another year of good returns this year.

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